COVID-19 AND THE ECONOMY: KENYA PRESIDENT’S MATHS DOESN’T ADD UP

COVID-19 AND THE ECONOMY: KENYA PRESIDENT’S MATHS DOESN’T ADD UP

There have been 3 claims about Covid-19 infection rates and the threshold for “totally” easing restrictions where one claim was incorrect, one misleading and one correct. These claims were verified by the president Uhuru Kenyatta (August 2020).

In national speeches in August and September, Kenyatta said the positivity rate for Covid-19 had fallen from 13% in June. But this rate was only reached in July.The president was closer to the mark with his estimate of an 8% positivity rate in August.

In late September 2020 the Kenyan government called a national conference to chart its “post-Covid future” as it gradually reopens its battered economy.Afterwards, president Uhuru Kenyatta announced a further easing of the restrictions in place since March to counter the spread of Covid-19.The academic year had been abandoned, but schools would now reportedly reopen in October 2020, with teachers already recalled.

As the country waits for more guidance from the presidency, we fact-checked three claims Kenyatta made in an August 2020 national speech, variations of which he repeated in his 28 September address.

CLAIM 0NE (Incorrect)

Health experts have indicated that levels of the positivity rate countrywide have fallen from a high of 13% in June.

Kenyatta said that health experts had “indicated that levels of the positivity rate countrywide have fallen from a high of 13% in June to 8% in August” and described this as “very encouraging”. In September the president repeated a slightly different version of this claim: “Yes, the COVID positivity rate has fallen from 13% in June, 7% in August and is now at 4.4% in September.”

The positivity rate is the number of positive cases calculated as a percentage of the number of people tested, Dr Patrick Amoth, acting director-general in Kenya’s health ministry, told Africa Check.

CLAIM 2 (mostly correct)

….. (Positivity rates have fallen) to 8% in August

On 2 September, Dr Amoth, acting director-general for health, tweeted that the positivity rate for July 2020 was 13%, matching that reported by the ministry.

For August 2020, the weekly positivity rates were 11%, 10%, 7% and 6%, according to the ministry’s daily report of 15 September. (Note: These are calculated as seven-day moving averages by the ministry. These are considered more reliable. The table above does not have a moving average. We have also rounded up the rates.)

The average of these weekly positivity values in August came to 8.5%. We therefore rate the president’s claim here as mostly correct.

CLAIM 3 (misleading)

…. We have a chance to reach the 5% positivity rate recommended by the World Health Organization for a total reopening of our economy and country.

In April the World Health Organization released guidelines on controlling the Covid-19 pandemic. Subsequent communications from the global health agency have advised on schools, workplacesand mass gatherings.

The WHO said decisions to introduce, adapt or lift public health or social measures should be carefully assessed. Some of the considerations should include the ability to detect a resurgence and to manage extra patients in health facilities.

Less than 5% of samples testing positive for at least two weeks was only one of the indicators that could be used to decide if the epidemic was under control.

Dr Ziraba, epidemiologist at the African Population and Health Research Center, said that a 5% positivity rate was low enough to have “minimal transmission if people are interacting and going back to their normal routines, where the risk is manageable, the healthcare system can cope with whatever infections can come up, and we are unlikely to have a flare up”.

“The positivity rate is not a magic bullet for the control of Covid-19,” Dr Amoth, of Kenya’s health ministry, told Africa Check. Before a decision was made, a number of other factors were considered, he said. This included the number of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospitals and the number of patients in critical care.

Depending on who was being tested, a declining positivity rate backed by good contact tracing and testing was desirable, and a sign of a slower progression of the epidemic, he said.

“However, this may not be so if the persons being tested are considered low risk. Currently, Kenya tests groups considered to be high risk: truckers, travelers, symptomatic persons referred from hospitals across the country and contacts of cases. This would therefore mean that the true population positivity could be the same or lower”.

Yes, the WHO does recommend a 5% positivity rate as a threshold for easing public health restrictions due to the pandemic. But it is not the only measure that should be used.

We therefore rate the president’s claim as misleading.

This information was first published by Africa Check.

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